How To Lose Your Oscar Pool: My Picks

Earlier in the week I told you all about the world’s greatest Oscar contest. Now I’ll cut through the hype and tell you who’s going to win…as well as who might bring the upset and why even the long shots are good possibilities. (This is one of those articles I hate to write cause I’m just gonna eat my words when the envelopes are opened.)

BEST PICTURE: There's a lot of talk about how CRASH has gained momentum and could take the crown from BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN. While I wish that was true, I think it’s hype to get ratings for movies the general public doesn’t care about. (For the first time in a l-o-n-g time, none of the 5 nominees are in the box office Top 10.) The Academy loves to make you think it might be AVIATOR, when we all know the night belongs to MILLION DOLLAR BABY.
1st choice BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
2nd CRASH
3 Capote
4 Good Night, & Good Luck
5 Munich

BEST DIRECTOR: Even if CRASH did win, nobody expects this to go to anyone besides Ang Lee.
1 Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
2 Paul Haggis - Crash
3 Steven Spielberg – Munich
4 George Clooney - Good Night, And Good Luck
5 Bennett Miller - Capote

BEST ACTOR: Much like Best Picture, there’s a belief that my personal pick could upset the odds on favorite. I’d love for Terrence Howard to win this, and Heath Ledger has lost so much momentum that he’s my 3rd choice. But the prize will go to CAPOTE.
1 Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
2 Terrence Howard - Hustle & Flow
3 Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
4 Joaquin Phoenix - Walk The Line
5 David Strathairn - Good Night. And, Good Luck

BEST ACTRESS: Oscar hype is trying to push Felicity Huffman and make this a competition, but Reese Witherspoon has the award all wrapped up.
1 Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line
2 Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
3 Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
4 Charlize Theron - North Country
5 Keira Knightly - Pride & Prejudice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Finally, a race that really is wide open. Clooney is probably the favorite, but a lot of people think this could go to Giamatti, who I feel has dropped completely off the Academy radar since the nomination. My pick for the upset is Matt Dillon. This is one of the first awards given and if it goes to Jake Gylenhaal, then expect a thorough sweep for BROKEBACK.
1 George Clooney - Syriana
2 Matt Dillon - Crash
3 Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
4 Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
5 William Hurt - A History of Violence

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: The sure bet is Rachel Weisz. The hype says to look for an upset by Amy Adams. I wonder whatever happened to the momentum of Michelle Williams.
1 Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
2 Amy Adams - Junebug
3 Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
4 Catherine Keener - Capote
5 Frances McDormand - North Country

BEST SCREENPLAY: In two of the easiest races to call, expect CRASH and BROKEBACK to win Original and Adapted Screenplay. Arrange the rest in whatever order you want. (Then again, I still can’t believe GOSFORD PARK beat MEMENTO back on 2001.)

FOREIGN LANGUAGE:
1 TSOTSI
2 PARADISE NOW
3 SOPHIE SCHOLL
4 JOYEUX NOEL
5 DON’T TELL

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1 March Of The Penguins
2 Murderball
3 Enron: The Smartest Guys In The Room
4 Street Fight
5 Darwin's Nightmare

ANIMATED FILM
1 Wallace & Gromit
2 Howl's Moving Casle
3 The Corpse Bride

ART DIRECTION
1 Memoirs Of A Geisha
2 King Kong
3 Pride & Prejudice
4 Good Night, And Good Luck.
5 Harry Potter And The Goblet Of Fire

CINEMATOGRAPHY: BROKEBACK and MEMOIRS are actually too close to call here
1 Brokeback Mountain
2 Memoirs Of A Geisha
3 Good Night, And Good Luck.
4 The New World
5 Batman Begins

COSTUME DESIGN
1 Memoirs Of A Geisha
2 Pride & Prejudice
3 Mrs. Henderson Presents
4 Charlie And The Chocolate Factory
5 Walk The Line

FILM EDITING
1 Crash
2 The Constant Gardener
3 Munich
4 Walk The Line
5 Cinderella Man

MAKEUP
1 The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe
2 Cinderella Man
3 Star Wars: Episode III Revenge Of The Sith

MUSIC (SCORE): Another race I thought was pretty locked up for BROKEBACK, but people have given a listen to John Williams’ score for GEISHA and it could take the statuette.
1 Brokeback Mountain
2 Memoirs Of A Geisha
3 Munich
4 Pride & Prejudice
5 The Constant Gardener

MUSIC (SONG): I want HUSTLE & FLOW to win. (I believe it deserved to take all three nominations), but CRASH is a much more respectable choice. Sure, rap won it in 2002, but “Lose Yourself” was too strong a piece of craft to be ignored.
1 "In The Deep" From Crash
2 "It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp" From Hustle & Flow
3 "Travelin' Thru" From Transamerica

SOUND EDITING
King Kong
War Of The Worlds
Memoirs Of A Geisha

SOUND MIXING: Believe it or not, your chances of winning may come down to this category. The race is so wide open and impossible to distinguish one mix from another, you might as well close your eyes and blindly stab your finger at the list.
1 King Kong
2 Walk The Line
3 Memoirs Of A Geisha
4 The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe
5 War Of The Worlds

VISUAL EFFECTS
1 King Kong
2 The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe
3 War Of The Worlds

Good Luck, Everybody. Try to not bash me too bad when they announce the winners.